Market Commentary

from our Chief Investment Officer, Chris Proctor.

The US is currently experiencing the longest economic expansion since World War II2.
As of March 31, 2019, the S&P 500 had its best quality quarterly performance since 1998. This follows December 2018 that was the worst December for the US stock market since 19312.
The US economy grew 3 percent in 2018 and is expected to slow but grow in 2019. Expectations for inflation are relatively low despite a strong labor market.
A US-China trade agreement, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, US corporate earnings, Brexit and global economic growth are some of the primary uncertainties that continue to affect daily market sentiment.
We have recently reduced or eliminated small cap stocks, natural resources and some international to reduce volatility and ideally provide better downside protection if a meaningful correction occurs in the equity market.

Slower real economic growth of 2.5 percent (but still growth)
Inflation grinds higher but not out of control – wage growth fairly contained despite low unemployment
No recession expected near term as the consumer has money, is spending it, and drives 68 percent of GDP
Challenging year for stocks as the corporate earnings outlook is less clear (post-tax cuts)
Volatility will be high as traders (not investors) buy/sell on economic headlines and tweets
Interest rates move modestly higher which limit both bond and stock returns
International stocks will seemingly be challenged due to a variety of factors