4th Quarter 2019 Market Commentary
- Consumers continue to drive economic growth.
- YTD and one-year market returns look very different.
- We continue to stress importance of using proper risk in your portfolios.
- Geo-political events cause short term market volatility that historically recovers in a matter of weeks, depending on the severity.
- Economic growth in 2019 is still in line with annualized gains experienced since the economic recovery began in 2009.
3rd Quarter 2019 Market Commentary
- June was an historic month for stocks!
- U.S. economy is slowing but growing.
- Corporate profit growth is expected to contract for the first three quarters of 2019.
- The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates this year.
- Recession risk is widely discussed but likely avoided in the near term.
- This month marks the longest U.S. economic expansion on record.
2nd Quarter 2019 Market Commentary
- The US is currently experiencing the longest economic expansion since World War II.
- As of March 31, 2019, the S&P 500 had its best quarterly performance since 1998. This follows December 2018 that was the worst December for the US stock market since 1931.
- The US economy grew 3 percent in 2018 and is expected to slow but grow in 2019. Expectations for inflation are relatively low despite a strong labor market.
- A US-China trade agreement, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, US corporate earnings, Brexit and global economic growth are some of the primary uncertainties that continue to affect daily market sentiment.
- We have recently reduced or eliminated small cap stocks, natural resources and some international exposure to reduce volatility and ideally provide better downside protection if a meaningful correction occurs in the equity market.